Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy: Insights from Big Data in the U.S., Canada, and the U.KNew!
with J. Díaz and E. Hansen · 2026
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, p.1-89.
Forecasting the Volatility of U.S. Oil and Gas Firms with Machine Learning
with J. Díaz and E. Hansen · 2025
Journal of Forecasting, vol. 44, p.1383-1402.
Time-Varying Risk Aversion and International Stock Returns
with M. Guidolin and E. Hansen · 2025
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 75, p.102271.
Machine-Learning Stock Market Volatility: Predictability, Drivers, and Economic Value
with J. Díaz and E. Hansen · 2024
International Review of Financial Analysis, vol. 94, p.103286.
Gold Risk Premium Estimation with Machine Learning Methods
with J. Díaz and E. Hansen · 2023
Journal of Commodity Markets, vol. 31, p. 100293.
Economic Drivers of Commodity Volatility: The Case of Copper
with J. Díaz and E. Hansen · 2021
Resources Policy, vol. 73, p. 102224.
A Random Walk Through the Trees: Forecasting Copper Prices Using Decision Learning Methods
with J. Díaz and E. Hansen · 2020
Resources Policy, vol. 69, p. 101859.
Product Market Competition and Voluntary Disclosure: Evidence from Analyst/Investor Days
with O. Kolokolova and S. Sarah Zhang · 2026
Latest draft Aug 2026.
Abstract
Analyst/investor (A/I) days are a relatively new and distinct channel of firm disclosure. We show that firms are more likely to host A/I days when levels of current product market competition are low and threats from potential rivals are high—the pattern that we label “competition timing”. Such timing predicts a higher informativeness of an event, with companies emphasising innovation, forward outlooks, and firm value. It is also associated with stronger market responses, including a more positive tone of speakers, higher short-term abnormal returns, improved stock liquidity, sustained increases in institutional ownership post-event, and a subsequent drop in the pressure from potential competitors entering the same product-market space. Our results establish A/I days as a potential strategic tool for firms’ competitive positioning.
Save the Date: Analyst/Investor Days as a Trading Signal
with O. Kolokolova and S. Sarah Zhang · 2026
When Managers Speak, Markets Listen: Evidence from Analyst/Investor Days
with O. Kolokolova and S. Sarah Zhang · 2026
Job market paper. Latest draft Aug 2026.
Abstract
We study how prices incorporate information released during Analyst/Investor Days, multi-hour corporate disclosure events with prepared manager presentations and Q&A session. Aligning sentence-timestamped transcripts with tick-level trades and quotes for 2,490 U.S. events from 2014 to 2025, we show that 80% of the event-window return is impounded before the Q&A begins through both discrete jumps and locally explosive drift bursts. Discrete jumps mostly respond to forward-looking and future-oriented statements, and are more likely after speaker negative-tone minutes and when the CEO is speaking. In contrast, gradual price adjustments (drift bursts) respond to signed order-flow imbalance and are largely unrelated to language. Decomposing order flow imbalance into retail and non-retail, retail imbalance has the strongest impact on stock prices when managers are speaking, while the interaction of non-retail imbalance with presenter characteristics and speech is limited.